This report from the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center considers the impact that five separate scenarios regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine would have on transatlantic energy security and proposes strategies on how to strengthen it by reducing Europe’s reliance on Russian energy imports.
From a summary on the Atlantic Council website:
The democratic world must take every reasonable step to ensure that Ukraine survives as a sovereign democracy with its internationally recognized territory intact. Secondarily, the forces of democracy must consider the future of energy balances in Europe and Russia’s role in global energy markets. Diversification from Russian flows is not guaranteed in perpetuity without a transatlantic strategy with realistic pathways for implementation.
To better understand how the war’s conclusion—or lack thereof—will impact the options available to transatlantic policymakers, this report analyzes European security across five general scenarios—a Ukrainian victory, a negotiated settlement, a frozen conflict, a protracted conflict, and a Russian victory—and aims to understand the impacts of the war’s potential outcomes on transatlantic energy security, in order to propose strategies for dealing with the unique fallout from each scenario.
Reducing Europe’s reliance on Russian energy imports: Key strategies under five scenarios. Atlantic Council Global Energy Center
Read the full report published March 14, 2024.
