OSLO (Reuters) – There is sufficient supply to meet British energy demand during the summer season from April to September this year, the UK’s national transmission companies for gas and electricity said on Thursday.
Total UK gas demand was forecast at 29 billion cubic metres (bcm) this summer versus 33.3 bcm in the same period of 2023, National Gas said in its annual summer outlook.
The reduction is largely due to the expectation of lower exports to continental Europe, in combination with less demand for gas for power generation, National Gas said.
Britain exports some gas to the rest of Europe via interconnectors, with average UK exports to the rest of Europe expected to be 3.6 bcm, down from 7.1 bcm last summer.
The beginning of the summer season will see higher exports to Europe but they are expected to be followed by a sharp drop as European gas storage sites fill and gas from Britain is no longer required to the same extent, National Gas said.
European storage levels ended the winter season at 59%, well above the five-year average, the report said.
Supply, mainly from the North Sea and Norway, was forecast to be 29 bcm compared to 31.8 bcm last year, the report showed.
Norwegian gas production is expected to increase from last summer thanks to new fields coming online and lower expected maintenance outages, but UK production will decline as legacy fields mature, according to National Gas.
In a separate report, Britain’s Electricity System Operator (ESO) said it was confident there will be sufficient supply to meet electricity demand over the summer.
British peak summer electricity demand was forecast at 29.2 gigawatts (GW) with minimum demand expected to be 16.2 GW.
“We expect that peak transmission system demand will continue to fall due to an increase in solar generation connected to the distribution networks,” ESO said.
