MOSCOW — The Russian economy ministry has downgraded its forecasts for the country’s crude oil export prices for the next three years to $65 per barrel, according to an updated outlook seen by Reuters on Tuesday.
The forecasts, used to compile the federal budget, were cut from previous estimates of $71.3 per barrel for 2024, $70.1 for 2025 and $70 for 2026.
Russia has faced myriad sanctions from the West over the conflict in Ukraine, including restrictions on Russian oil purchases as well as a price cap of $60 per barrel.
The downward revision is likely to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, which saw a shortfall of $6.56 billion, or 0.3% of gross domestic product, in the first quarter.
Still, oil and gas revenue was 79.1% higher in the first three months of 2024 than a year earlier, supported by high commodity prices.
Earlier on Tuesday, the economy ministry upgraded its expectations for 2024 gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 2.8% from 2.3%, while envisaging a weaker rouble and shrinking current account surplus in the years to come.
Prices of natural gas for exports to the European Union and Turkey are now seen at $297.3 per 1,000 cubic metres this year, $285.8 in 2025 and $276.1 in 2026, down from previously expected $321.7, $308.3 and $296 correspondingly, according to the updated outlook.
The price of natural gas for China has also been revised downwards.
Oil exports from Russia are seen slightly rising this year to 240 million tons (4.8 million barrels per day) from 238 million tons in 2023, according to the forecast of Russia’s socio-economic development until 2027.
(Reporting by Reuters; editing by Kirsten Donovan and Mark Heinrich)
