What will the transition to renewable energy sources mean for our understanding of energy security? The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), an intergovernmental agency based in Abu Dhabi, has published a paper examining the geopolitics of this question. The main takeaway: policymakers should avoid applying old ways of thinking to new realities.
As Francesco La Camera, the director-general of IRENA, says in the foreword:
The report advises that policymakers should not merely transpose thinking from the fossil fuel era to a renewables-based system. It identifies multiple issues that should be systematically considered to guide
IRENA (2024), Geopolitics of the energy transition: Energy security, International Renewable
national decision making on resource endowments and comparative advantages. This is particularly crucial as governments make significant investments in infrastructure for systems that are increasingly electrified,
digitalised and decentralised. The report places the well being of people and the planet at the centre of the evolving energy security narrative. Ultimately, it recognises that addressing energy security is as much a
political endeavour as it is a technical one.
Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi
Organizations
The report includes a summary for policymakers that lists 21 things to keep in mind (pages 10-15).
Some highlights are reproduced below:
Every country has some form of renewable potential it can harness, thereby enhancing its energy resilience, independence and control, and reducing exposure to volatile fossil fuel prices.
In 2022, 86% of the global population lived in countries that were net importers of fossil fuels. The shift to renewables from local sources will boost self-sufficiency, shifting energy dependencies from the global to the regional level and making most countries less susceptible to geopolitical disruptions. By conventional standards of energy security, this promises enhanced stability and resilience, while improving balance of payment and macroeconomic benefits.
Transitioning away from fossil fuels is set to alter global trade, leading to a substantial regionalisation of energy trade.
Approximately 40% of maritime cargo today is made up of fossil fuels, and shipping heavily relies on these fuels. Transitioning away from oil, gas and coal will reduce long-distance trade in energy. Electrification will promote cross-border trade and clean energy commodities such as green hydrogen will not be traded in volumes comparable to fossil fuels, or over such great distances. Going forward, global trade in clean energy-related technologies or semi-finished products is expected to diversify and intensify.
New trade flows in electricity, hydrogen, materials and clean technologies will emerge, differing significantly from traditional fossil fuel dependencies.
Disruptions in most of these areas would not immediately affect end-users’ energy security. Interruptions in electricity, however, would be instantaneous, changing the nature of energy security policy where cross-border trade is introduced or expanded compared to fossil fuels.
Energy security in renewables-based systems requires multi-dimensional thinking.
The energy transition represents the creation of a new energy system, not just the substitution of one set of fuels for another. Reflexively transposing the geopolitical considerations of the fossil fuel era to the era of
renewable energy could lead to significant oversights and ill-considered investments. The systemic nature
of the ongoing transition and its wide-ranging social and economic impacts warrant holistic thinking.
Energy demand, often overlooked in discussions of energy security, gains paramount importance in a new world of interconnected systems.
Rapidly growing demand, particularly in Africa and Asia, also has geopolitical implications that make themselves felt in global energy markets, trade patterns and strategic alliances. Addressing these considerations is key to ensuring a responsive and resilient energy framework, one adaptable to both gradual shifts and sudden changes. In a broader sense, managing and moderating demand growth through energy efficiency and demand response policies and investments can mitigate competition for energy resources and market access.
Human security must become an integral dimension of energy security.
Threats such as population displacement, poverty, instability and inequality amplify one another; together they can undermine peace and increase geopolitical instability. Renewables-based transitions offer many opportunities for improving human security, although attention must be paid to issues such as resource competition, especially as climate effects increase.
Read the full report by Elizabeth Press, director of IRENA planning and programme support, and IRENA consultants Yana Popkostova and Thijs Van de Graaf.
Citation: IRENA (2024), Geopolitics of the energy transition: Energy security, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi.
