A new report from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the global airline trade association, compares different roadmaps for the aviation industry to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
What do they have in common? They all assume that the biggest reductions in carbon dioxide emissions will come through sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), with the median value being at 53 per cent of reductions compared to baseline emissions levels.
But the report also notes that median value comes within a wide range (24 per cent to 70 per cent), which highlights a potential problem:
However, this wide range of possible contributions from SAF also suggests uncertainty in its global supply, which depends on feedstock availability, production costs, as well as supportive action from
“Aviation net zero CO2 transition pathways: comparative review,” IATA, April 2024
governments and financiers.
Another thing most of the roadmaps have in common:
To achieve net zero in 2050, almost all the global roadmaps suggest that the aviation sector will need help from market-based measures and carbon removals to bridge the gap (ranging from 95 MtCO2 to 370 MtCO2) between their residual emissions and net zero emissions in 2050. Even if carbon removal technologies are considered an ‘out-of-sector’ mitigation measure, it is still critical to develop these technologies as they will play a key role in supplying CO2 as the feedstock for producing power-to-liquid (PtL) fuels.
“Aviation net zero CO2 transition pathways: comparative review,” IATA, April 2024
Read the full report: “Aviation Net Zero CO2 Transition Pathways: Comparative Review.”
The report was produced in collaboration with the Air Transportation Systems Laboratory at University College London, the Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) and the Mission Possible Partnership.
