The number of heat-related deaths in the UK is predicted to increase more than six-fold by the end of the century if the world warms by 3C, a study shows.
But deaths related to cold – currently much higher than from heat – are predicted to rise only slightly, reaching nearly 70,000 per year by 2100, according to analysis published in the journal Lancet Global Health.
Modelling data from 30 European countries also suggests heat-related deaths could triple in the continent by the end of the century under current climate policies, increasing from 43,729 to 128,809 per year.
In the same scenario, deaths attributed to cold would remain high, with a slight decrease from 363,809 to 333,703 by 2100, scientists said.
Dr Juan-Carlos Ciscar, of the Joint Research Centre at the European Commission, said: “Our analysis reveals that the ratio of cold-heat deaths will shift dramatically over the course of this century, with those attributed to heat increasing in all parts of Europe and surging in some areas.
“At the same time, cold-related deaths will decline slightly overall.
“Our study looks at more than 1,000 regions across 30 countries, enabling the identification of hotspots where people will be worst affected in the future.”
Heat-related deaths per year in the UK are predicted to rise six-fold, from 1,258 to 7,931 per year, while cold-related deaths are estimated to increase slightly from the current 64,195 to 64,952 per year by the end of the century.
In Ireland, cold-related deaths are predicted to jump from 3,974 to 7,696 per year by the end of the century, while deaths attributed to heat are estimated to rise from 30 to 563 per year.
Deaths from cold are highest in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states and lowest in Central and parts of Southern Europe, while heat-related deaths have the lowest rates in the UK and Scandinavian countries and are highest in Croatia and the southernmost parts of the continent, analysis shows.
Although most countries have pledged to curb emissions to slow down global warming, a United Nations analysis published last year suggests the world is still on track to warm by nearly 3C by the end of the century.
Dr David Garcia-Leon, also of the Joint Research Centre at the European Commission, said: “There is a critical need for the development of more targeted policies to protect these areas and members of society most at risk from temperature extremes.”
Commenting on the study, Dr Leslie Mabon, lecturer in environmental systems at The Open University, who was not involved, said: “The results are broadly in line with what existing research has shown in multiple contexts around the globe – namely, that temperature extremes do not affect everyone equally, with the elderly and the least well-off being most at risk.
“What is especially striking is that the authors find clear differences in risk across country boundaries and also regional clusters of mortality risk.
“Temperature gradients do not respect borders, so, as the authors point out, this shows how demographic and socio-economic factors influence the risk we face from temperature extremes.
“There are counter-measures we can take, which may be particularly effective if they are targeted towards the most vulnerable people and places.
“For example, the study points to investment in health infrastructure, the presence of heat and cold preparedness plans, and the quality of the buildings we live and work in as factors that could reduce mortality under a changing climate.”
