At a glance
“The Role of Fusion Energy in a Decarbonized Electricity System,” by Robert C. Armstrong, Dennis G. Whyte et al. MIT Energy Initiative, September 2024.
This report examines the potential role fusion energy could play in decarbonizing global electricity by 2100. It finds that fusion could supply up to 50 per cent of global electricity by 2100 in some scenarios, especially in regions with limited renewable resources and high electricity demand growth.
The paper published by MIT Energy Initiative shows how fusion could complement renewable energy by providing reliable, carbon-free power, with the potential to increase global societal value by up to $8.7 trillion by 2100, depending on cost reductions. These findings underscore the critical role fusion could play in achieving net zero emissions — if cost and technology targets can be achieved.
Organizations
Topics
Key findings
- Share of supply: Fusion could supply between 10 per cent and 50 per cent of global electricity by 2100, with higher penetration in regions with limited renewable energy resources.
- Regional forecasts: Initial fusion deployment is projected to be strongest in the U.S. and Europe but with rapid growth later in the century in regions with poor renewable resources and high electricity demand growth, such as India and Africa.
- Ideal price point: The overnight cost of fusion power plants in 2050 must fall to $5,600/kW for strong market adoption and to $3,000/kW by 2100 for wider deployment.
- Hard-to-abate sectors: Fusion energy could significantly support hard-to-decarbonize sectors, such as hydrogen production, process heat, and negative emissions technologies.
- Capital costs: Reactor equipment is the leading cost contributor for fusion power plants, ranging from 30 per cent to 65 per cent of total capital costs.
- Macroeconomics: Fusion energy has the potential to increase global societal value by $3.6 to $8.7 trillion by 2100, depending on future cost reductions.
Bigger picture
The findings in the report underscore fusion’s potential to accelerate the global energy transition, particularly in areas facing challenges with other low-carbon options. Its economic analysis reveals that fusion’s societal value could reach $8.7 trillion by 2100 if costs fall sufficiently, providing a compelling case for continued investment in fusion technology development.
Fusion deployment is highly sensitive to costs, which is one reason the report identifies cost reduction as the key to unlocking fusion’s full potential. Continued advances in fusion technology, materials, and energy storage, particularly to reduce reactor equipment costs which account for 30 to 65 per cent of total capital costs, are essential for widespread deployment by mid-century. These developments will not only support the power grid but also play a role in hard-to-decarbonize sectors, such as industrial processes and hydrogen production, further accelerating the global shift toward sustainable energy.
Challenges and opportunities
Key barriers to fusion contributing fully to energy transition progress:
- High upfront costs as fusion power plants require significant capital investment, and current projected costs need substantial reductions to achieve market viability.
- Technological uncertainty with fusion technologies still under development and commercial deployment more than a decade away.
- Supply-chain constraints for critical materials and specialized components, such as high-temperature superconductors and specialized plasma-facing materials.
- Lack of regulatory frameworks and market structures to accommodate fusion technology.
- Potential public acceptance issues, particularly around safety and radioactive materials.
- Competition from other low-carbon technologies, especially in regions with good renewable resources.
To address these challenges, the report recommends:
- Focusing research and development efforts on reducing fusion reactor equipment costs, which account for 30 to 65 per cent of total capital costs.
- Establishing supply chains for niche fusion components and critical materials through government and industry investment.
- Developing supportive policy frameworks with clear regulatory pathways and financial incentives (for example through tax credits, subsidies, and long-term power purchase agreements) to enable fusion integration into future energy systems.
- Increasing public education and awareness to differentiate fusion from fission and address safety concerns.
- Diversifying energy portfolios by integrating fusion into broader energy strategies, complementing renewables and focusing on regions or industries where renewable options are less feasible.
- Encouraging international collaboration on fusion research, development, and commercialization efforts to accelerate technological breakthroughs and reduce costs.
- Exploring synergies between fusion and other sectors like hydrogen production and industrial heat applications.
In their own words
Achieving economically competitive fusion will require advances in technology and significant cost reductions, particularly in reactor equipment and materials supply chains.
“The Role of Fusion Energy in a Decarbonized Electricity System,” By Robert Armstrong et al., MIT Energy Initiative, September 2024.
Final thoughts
This MIT Energy Initiative report highlights fusion energy’s potential to play a critical role in the global transition to net-zero emissions by providing reliable, carbon-free power. Fusion can complement renewable energy sources, particularly in regions with limited renewable capacity, and could help decarbonize sectors that are harder to electrify. The findings suggest fusion could support climate goals by dramatically reducing reliance on fossil fuels. It could also enhance energy security if cost and technology targets can be achieved.
The report could have benefited from more detailed comparisons with other emerging low-carbon technologies and a deeper exploration of the policies and regulatory frameworks needed to support fusion’s integration into future energy systems.
— By Charlie Bush
Download the full report originally published by MIT Energy Initiative in September 2024.
