At a glance
In 12 months the renewables market has moved but governments have not, by Dr Katye Altieri et al, Ember, Nov. 12, 2024.
Ember’s latest report reveals a significant disconnect between the rapid growth of renewable energy markets and the stagnation of government ambitions. One year after countries at COP28 agreed to triple global renewable capacity to 11,000 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, national targets have increased by a mere 4 GW. Solar installations are expected to rise by 29 per cent in 2024, yet current targets fall short by nearly half of what is needed for a tripling. Only China is projected to exceed its national wind power targets by 2030 and meet the global pledge. Battery storage forecasts project capacity will increase almost tenfold by 2030. But national targets remain woefully inadequate.
These gaps jeopardize efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 C. Ember urges governments to revise their 2030 targets to reflect market realities and bring in strong policies to unlock the full potential of renewables. Negotiations at COP29 this month in Azerbaijan were crucial with experts saying the world needs $1 trillion in climate finance to help developing countries reduce emissions, transition to cleaner energy and adapt to climate change. But the UN climate summit revealed sharp divisions. It concluded with developed nations agreeing to contribute at least $300 billion annually to developing nations by 2035, less than a quarter of what they asked for.
Key findings
- Far off the mark: Current national renewable energy targets aim to double capacity to 7,242 GW by 2030, falling short by 3,758 GW of the required 11,000 GW for a global tripling.
- Solar markets booming but not enough: Solar installations surged 87 per cent in 2023 and are projected to grow another 29 per cent in 2024. However, national solar targets only reach 3,011 GW by 2030, half of the estimated 6,640 GW needed for a tripling.
- Slow growth in battery storage: Battery storage additions increased by 136 per cent in 2023, yet only 30 countries have set storage targets totalling 284 GW. This is far below the 1,500 GW required globally by 2030.
- Not enough wind capacity: Global wind capacity is expected to reach only 2,157 GW by 2030, falling short of the tripling target. China dominates additions, while other regions struggle to keep pace.
- Regional disparities: Sub-Saharan Africa and MENA countries are particularly lagging behind renewable targets. Despite Africa’s vast solar potential and growing energy demand, MENA’s combined targets are 77 per cent below what is needed for a global tripling.
- Reasons for optimism: Forecasts suggest that tripling renewables is still possible with the right policy supports. Solar and battery storage markets could meet global goals if national ambitions are raised to reflect market realities.
Take a look
Bigger picture
The crowning achievement of the 2023 United Nations climate summit in Dubai (COP28) was the agreement by almost 200 countries to triple global renewable capacity by 2030. Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) show reaching 11,000 GW of renewable energy generation by 2030 is achievable, given the sector’s impressive momentum and increasing competitiveness with fossil fuels. Solar PV and wind power would account for about 90 per cent of the target renewable energy capacity additions needed to limit global warming to 1.5 C. But this report finds that national targets worldwide still aim to just double renewable capacity from 2022 levels by 2030.
This lack of government ambition comes at a time of rapidly expanding renewable energy markets. Solar deployment regularly exceeds predictions, with expected installations this year surpassing 2023 estimates by 29 per cent. BloombergNEF anticipates solar capacity reaching 6,640 GW by 2030 — more than the 6,101 GW required for a global tripling. Yet the current sum of 2030 national solar targets is just 3,011 GW. National wind targets fall 585 GW short of the 2,742 GW needed. This is especially concerning given wind has higher generation potential than solar due to better efficiency and potential to produce energy 24/7.
Published near the beginning of COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan last week, Ember’s report highlights the need to reassess energy transition ambitions, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Sub-Saharan Africa and Eurasian regions. Despite enormous potential, many of the countries within these regions have yet to begin building wind or solar at scale. This underscored the vital need for an ambitious new finance target for advanced economies to help vulnerable countries fight against worsening climate change at COP29. International co-operation and financing will be key to a global equitable energy transition. Overall, all regions’ targets need to increase for a global tripling of renewables. The report frames next year’s UN climate summit, COP30, as a pivotal opportunity for countries to reset their renewable energy ambitions in their 2025 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
Challenges and opportunities
Barriers to tripling renewables by 2030 identified in the report:
- Outdated national targets: Most countries’ 2030 renewable energy targets are significantly outdated. Only eight updated their goals in the past year, failing to reflect current market trends.
- Financing gaps in developing regions: Areas rich in renewable resources, such as Sub-Saharan Africa and MENA, attract only three per cent of global energy investment.
- Bottlenecks: Lengthy approval processes for wind and solar projects hinder deployment timelines and deter investment, particularly outside of China.
- Lack of energy storage ambition: Only 30 countries have established storage targets. They total 284 GW, falling at least 1,216 GW short of the global 2030 target.
- Deployment disparities: Some regions lack the infrastructure and policy frameworks needed to deploy renewables at scale. This exacerbates global inequalities and emphasises the need for more climate funding from richer countries.
- Needed grid and transmission upgrades: The rapid expansion of renewable capacity is not matched by upgrades to grid infrastructure. This creates inefficiency risks and reliability issues.
To address these challenges, the report recommends:
- Updating and aligning national targets: Governments should revise renewable energy targets to reflect the rapid growth in solar, wind, and battery storage markets. Goals should align with the tripling of renewables by 2030 target.
- Facilitating international financing: Stakeholders should support initiatives like the Nairobi Declaration. It aims to boost renewable energy financing to 20 per cent of global investment for Africa by 2030 and increase the continent’s renewable generation capacity to at least 300 GW by the same year.
- Streamlined permitting: Policymakers must simplify regulatory hurdles for wind and solar projects. Standardized frameworks and fast-tracking approvals aligned with national and international renewable targets are needed.
- Integrating energy storage in national plans: Governments should incorporate ambitious energy storage targets into national strategies to enhance grid flexibility and support increased renewable deployment.
- Cross-border collaboration: Regional co-operation on grid interconnection and renewable energy sharing is essential to address infrastructure gaps, especially in resource-rich but underdeveloped areas.
- Modernizing grid infrastructure: Countries should prioritize investment in transmission networks to reduce curtailment risks and enhance reliability during peak generation periods.
- Leveraging market momentum: Solar and storage markets are exceeding expectations. Governments should bring in supportive policies to unlock further investment and spur innovation.
In their own words
Each year that renewables growth exceeds expectations, the annual additions required to triple capacity becomes more achievable.
In 12 months the renewables market has moved but governments have not, by Dr Katye Altieri et al, Ember, Nov. 12, 2024.
Final thoughts
Ember underscores a major ambition gap between the rapid advancement of renewable energy markets and national targets, remaining unchanged since last year. The report’s findings highlight the urgent need for governments to align their policies with market dynamics to achieve climate goals. Besides targets, robust policy mechanisms are also crucial for supporting the tripling of renewables. This is particularly key to growing wind capacity, which is experiencing more linear growth than solar but offers greater generation potential.
The report could also benefit from considering the role energy efficiency can play in reducing emissions. Improving energy efficiency reduces energy demand and can quickly and cheaply reduce emissions, lower energy bills and bolster energy security. Likewise, the report should include demand-side solutions to reduce emissions, such as better building efficiency or replacing individual vehicles with shared transport.
Download the full report originally published by Ember on Nov. 12, 2024.
