Most greenhouse gas emissions come from cities. Why not involve them in NDCs?

At a glance

Stronger NDCs With Cities, States, and Regions: Recommendations for National Governments, by Nadia Shah Naidoo, Sophia Sanniti, Chaandi Malhotra, Michael Doust, and Pandora Batra. World Resources Institute, Nov. 13, 2024.

More than 70 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions come from cities. So does 80 per cent of gross domestic product. That makes it important to include them in national climate strategies. But when it comes to the current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which are the climate pledges countries submitted under the 2015 Paris Agreement, just 27 per cent of them adequately include urban content. This report from the World Resources Institute (WRI) urges national and subnational governments — cities, states, and regions — to work together on stronger NDCs for 2025 ahead of the next UN climate change summit (COP30) in Brazil, which will focus on delivering new climate targets for 2035. 

The report presents eight recommendations for incorporating subnational actions into NDCs through three stages: review, plan and develop. These strategies focus on data sharing, establishing joint climate goals and leveraging local expertise to increase ambition and implementation. By adopting this collaborative approach, governments can close climate action gaps and foster equitable solutions that support urban planning and cleaner energy transitions. Ultimately, these efforts are vital for limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and accelerating the global energy transition towards a sustainable future.

Key findings

• Cities contribute over 70 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions: Their significant role underscores the necessity for their inclusion in national climate strategies.
• Only 27 per cent of current NDCs have strong urban content: Most national climate plans lack detailed strategies for urban areas, despite their substantial impact.
• Most urban emissions can be cut: Subnational collaboration to enable the implementation of effective low-carbon measures could reduce emissions by up to 90 per cent.
• Global emissions must decrease by 43 per cent by 2030 and 60 per cent by 2035: To meet the Paris Agreement target of limiting warming to 1.5 C, emissions must reduce this much relative to 2019.
• Subnational governments are vital for net-zero goals: Local authorities oversee high-impact sectors like buildings, transport, and waste and are essential for driving community-level climate action.
• Strong multilevel partnerships enhance climate plan ambition and implementation: Collaborating with subnational governments throughout the NDC development process significantly improves both credibility and effectiveness.

Take a look

Bigger picture

Cities, states, and regions are essential as they oversee sectors that are critical to reducing emissions and transitioning to lower-carbon energy sources, including transportation, waste and energy. As urban populations are expected to grow by 2.5 billion people by 2050, there is much need for electrification of public transit, stronger regulations for building efficiency and other climate-friendly urban planning. Involving subnational stakeholders in the planning and implementation of NDCs is essential for sufficient emissions reductions to limit global warming to 1.5 C.

The authors suggest eight recommendations and practical steps for national governments to develop NDCs in partnership with subnational governments. Integrating actors down to the local level with national strategies aligns stakeholders across industries with climate goals. This also ensures that solutions are innovative and scalable. Governments must therefore enhance the urban content in their NDCs and facilitate multilevel partnerships at every level and across diverse industries.

Coming out of COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, developed countries have agreed to pay US$300 billion a year by 2035 to help developing countries adapt to climate change and transition to clean energy. While this is a tripling of the previous target, it is far short of what researchers say is needed and could end up increasing the debt load for developing economies. This raises the stakes for COP30 in Brazil next year, given its focus on setting new NDCs for 2035. This report notes current climate commitments are not in line with net-zero pathways. Working with subnational governments on the NDCs could help countries get back on track.

Challenges and opportunities

Key barriers to energy transition progress through stronger subnational NDCs:

• Fragmented governance: Lack of alignment between national and subnational climate policies leads to inefficiencies and missed synergies.
• Missing data: Subnational data, trends, targets, risks, policies, and actions on emissions and vulnerabilities is currently missing, hampering effective climate strategies.
• Economic constraints: Many subnational governments lack the fiscal resources necessary for ambitious climate initiatives, particularly in low-income regions.
• Staffing shortages: Subnational entities frequently lack the technical expertise and human resources needed to implement complex climate programs.
• Policy incoherence: Inconsistent regulations and conflicting priorities in areas like energy, transport, and urban planning slow progress.

To address these challenges, the report recommends:

• Multilevel governance frameworks: Policymakers should integrate subnational governments into NDC planning to streamline coordination and provide technical support.
• Integrate subnational and national data: Developing integrated platforms for subnational-national GHG inventory and climate risk assessments can improve climate decision-making.
• Capacity-building initiatives: Implementing training programs for local officials will help to ensure the effective management of renewable energy projects. Support from partnerships with universities and private firms can help.
• Scale urban solutions: Local governments should adopt policies promoting compact urban design, renewable transit and waste-to-energy technologies to reduce emissions.
• Learn from others: Countries can learn from successful multilevel partnerships. For instance, Kenya’s 2016 Climate Change Act established climate change units in every government ministry, state agency, and county government.

In their own words

The climate crisis impacts every aspect of our society, economy, and planet. Its effects transcend borders, sectors, and populations and require ambitious solutions that are built on the foundations of multilevel and cross-sectoral collaboration and partnerships.

Stronger NDCs With Cities, States, and Regions: Recommendations for National Governments, by Nadia Shah Naidoo, Sophia Sanniti, Chaandi Malhotra, Michael Doust, and Pandora Batra, World Resources Institute, Nov. 13, 2024.

Final thoughts

The authors of this report argue that excluding cities, regions and states weakens NDCs. But fostering partnerships across different levels of government can help reduce emissions across diverse carbon-intensive sectors, including construction, food systems and transport. That makes it key to meeting targets under the Paris Agreement and should be a priority for policymakers next year ahead of COP30. The report could have benefited from a deeper exploration of scalable models and financial mechanisms to support developing nations, but the authors suggest they may address this topic at another time. The report is an important reminder that the energy transition is a complicated and multifaceted challenge that requires input, collaboration and alignment across many industries, geographies and stakeholders.

Download the full report originally published by the World Resources Institute on Nov. 13, 2024.