Freezing weather and snow storms across the U.S. could cause massive power outages over the next week and boost natural gas demand to its highest levels of the winter, according to energy analysts and reliability coordinators.
The bump in demand comes as supplies of gas could drop due to the freezing of oil and gas wells and pipes, known in the energy industry as so-called “freeze-offs.”
Gas provides about 43 per cent of the nation’s power generation and heats about 45 per cent of the country’s homes, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The jump in demand coupled with a drop in supply could drive up prices next week.
“Appalachia and Rockies production face freeze-off risks as temperatures drop into the single digits or below,” analysts at energy consulting firm Gelber and Associates said in a note.
The U.S. produces about 105 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas with about a third of that supply coming from the Appalachia region of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio, according to data from financial firm LSEG and the EIA.
In past winters, freeze-offs have slashed gas output by massive amounts, including the loss of around 16.5 bcfd in January 2024, according to data from LSEG.
Frigid temperatures in December 2022 cut supplies by 19.4 bcfd, and in February 2021 hit output by 20.4 bcfd, according to LSEG data.
One billion cubic feet of gas is enough to supply about five million homes for a day.
As heating demand picks up, LSEG projects total U.S. gas use, including exports, could reach 156.4 bcfd on Jan. 9. That compares with the nation’s daily record of 168.4 bcfd hit on Jan. 16, 2024 during another brutal winter freeze.
The combination of soaring demand and freeze-offs in January 2024 boosted spot gas prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana to over $13 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
Next-day prices at the Henry Hub were currently around $3.65 per mmBtu, the highest levels since January 2024.
Power companies prepare
Some 250 million people will feel frigid air across 40 states in the next week, according to meteorologists at AccuWeather. They warned of significant ice accumulations that could cause power outages in parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky over the weekend and through Monday.
U.S. energy company CenterPoint Energy on Friday said its cold weather action plan was in place for power and gas customers in several states, including Texas, Louisiana, Indiana, Ohio and Mississippi.
Earlier this week, the North American Electric Reliability Corp (NERC), the nation’s reliability coordinator, urged everyone in the electricity supply chain to take steps now to ensure the highest levels of reliability.
NERC said it is “especially concerned about natural gas supply given the significant amount of production in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.”
Extreme weather in February in 2021 left millions in Texas without power, water and heat for days and resulted in over 200 deaths as the state’s power grid scrambled to prevent the electric system from collapsing.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Liz Hampton and Sandra Maler)
