20 November 2024
• The G20 Leaders’ Summit in Rio de Janeiro proved multilateralism still prevails despite ongoing geopolitical rifts.
• G20 leaders reaffirmed progress from earlier G20 ministerial talks, endorsing COP29 and urging a successful NCQG outcome in Baku – a positive, if generic, push to support negotiations on the new climate finance goal. Progress on reforms to Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) to unlock large-scale climate funding adds momentum.
• That said, the final declaration illustrated major shortcomings on mitigation, by cherry-picking parts of the UAE consensus when explicitly reaffirming the tripling renewables and doubling energy efficieny goals, but not the transition away from fossil fuel – despite last year’s clear message that it’s a package, not a menu of options. They also failed to maintain language on coal phasedown secured by the last two G20 Presidencies. However, G20 Leaders cannot ignore reality: renewables are surging, and coal, oil, and gas are on borrowed time.
• South Africa will take over the G20 presidency from Brazil on December 1st. Going forward, it must build on this year’s finance achievements and support progress on mitigation on the road to COP30, in particular G20 leadership on updating economy wide Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that support the transition to a 1.5 °C world.
Story
The G20 Leaders’ Summit has concluded in Rio de Janeiro. The timing of the Summit provided the opportunity to send strong signals back to ongoing talks at COP29.Following last-minute negotiations over the weekend, the final communiqué supports greater progress on finance, while the energy piece could have been stronger on fossil fuel phase-out. Nevertheless, leaders have crucially tied economic success to climate change mitigation and adaptation. This integration marks a major step to embedding climate action in economic consideration, thinking and priorities as the norm and not the exception anymore. Amidst a worsening geopolitical backdrop, this commitment sends a positive signal moving forward. Lula secured a successful G20 presidency, reiterating the group’s commitment to multilateralism achieving this by sidelining the acute conflicts and disagreements between members to achieve meaningful progress.
Positive momentum for international climate finance
Leaders have reiterated the progress made in the G20 Finance Ministerial earlier this autumn. The communiqué also endorsed COP29, with leaders expressing their anticipation for a successful NCQG outcome in Baku – a positive and timely push for currently entrenched negotiations on the new climate finance goal. This is further supported by G20 progress on the wider financing landscape, notably multilateral development banks’ reform to unlock capital at scale for climate and development measures in developing countries. However, the absence of quantitative goals on shareholder capital commitments from G20 members represents a missed opportunity to encourage donor countries and boost funding discussions.
Beyond concessional funding, freeing up fiscal space in Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) is of utmost importance. The Leaders’ Communique contains some initial mentions regarding taxation and debt, though it lacks a comprehensive strategy. The measures on taxation focus on high-net-worth individuals – a flagship project of the Brazilian Presidency despite initial pushback from other members. While additional taxation, notably on activities under-taxed yet polluting, such as shipping and aviation, would have been welcome, this current focus remains a significant achievement.
Leaders correctly identified debt vulnerabilities in EMDEs as a critical issue that needs addressing. However, in developing countries, climate change and over-indebtedness are often the two faces of the same coin. Going forward, Leaders will need to acknowledge the intertwined nature of both issues. Instead of merely adhering to procedural provisions on debt, they must push all stakeholders to offer innovative instruments that genuinely combine debt sustainability and climate safety.
Slow progress on energy decarbonisation
At a time when decarbonisation has never been more urgent, signals from the G20 Summit regarding the transition from fossil fuels have been mixed. Tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency by 2030, efforts to accelerate coal phase down, and phasing out of fossil fuels by mid-century were some of the landmark agreements of the Global Stocktake (GST)’s energy package and Dubai Consensus, agreed to by countries at COP28. While the G20 communiqué “welcomes and fully subscribes” to the UAE Consensus and GST text, it omits explicit references to transitioning away from fossil fuels. Additionally, the omissions of the Coal phasedown text – an ever-present in G20 communiques since 2022 – was a significant oversight.
Meanwhile, on the margins of the G20 Summit, Brazil and Argentina have forged a deal for Brazil to import up to 30 million cubic meters daily from Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale gas fields. This deal raises questions about the region’s commitment to transition away from fossil fuels. These developments reflect the differing perspectives on mitigation, that are not only challenging for negotiators contributing to the strained atmosphere in Baku, but will also impact wider ambition-setting as countries finish drafting their respective NDCs prior to the February 2025 submission deadline.
Some positive signals were seen during the Sustainable Development and Energy Transition session, where the UK and EU launched new but complementary energy initiatives. The UK-led Global Clean Power Alliance (GCPA) and its ‘finance mission’ co-led with Brazil and backed by a range of countries from both the Global North and South, look to inject some political leadership and coordination into the global energy transition space. It will now be interesting to see what explicit targets the GCPA and finance mission set, how they plan to deliver on these, and how the GCPA will balance renewables deployment with pushing coal and gas off the grid.
What next? Pathways to raise ambition on the road to COP30
In December, South Africa will take over the G20 presidency from Brazil. It must build on this year’s finance achievements and support progress on mitigation despite some uncooperative G20 members. Brazil will still hold a central role, as the upcoming COP30 and BRICS President, to shape transition pathways for scaling up climate ambition in NDCs and beyond. The G20 account for 77% of global emissions. Their leadership in aligning their climate plans, NDC 2035 mitigation targets and mid-century net-zero goals with 1.5 °C will decide upon success or failure of the global climate regime.
With Brazil and South Africa entertaining warm relations – their common diplomatic efforts proved to be quite successful at this year’s BRICS summit – we expect to see close collaboration between the two in 2025. Synergies between the G20, BRICS and COP agendas could unlock ramped up progress on decarbonisation.
Quotes
Gustavo Pinheiro, Senior Associate at E3G said:
“The G20 Leaders’ Communiqué marks critical progress amid a turbulent geopolitical landscape. Under Brazil’s presidency, the G20 sent strong signals to energize the COP30 pathway, advance an agreement on the New Collective Quantified Goal and ramp up adaptation efforts. However, the failure to reach consensus on transitioning away from fossil fuels casts a shadow on the urgency needed to address the main driver of global warming. Brazil’s leadership has been pivotal in setting ambitious agendas. Now, the world looks to nations to deliver at COP29 and for Brazil to transform ambition into action at COP30.”
Leo Roberts, Programme Lead on Coal-to-Clean at E3G said:
“It’s great to see the UK taking a leadership role in the race to deliver clean power globally, and rightly prioritising the need to drastically increase the availability of high-quality finance for countries in the Global South. It’s important to note that ‘clean power’ is the end state the world must get to if we are to prevent runaway climate change, and not a euphemism for renewable energy. Deploying renewables at pace and scale is essential, but the GCPA must also work to actively displace coal and gas generation from the grid if it is to truly delivery on its clean power vision.”
Madhura Joshi, Senior Associate at E3G said:
“The G20 leaders’ declaration has been underwhelming on energy. There are a few positives – they reaffirmed commitment to multilateralism, endorsed voluntary just transition principles and fully subscribed to GST-1 outcomes and Dubai Consensus, and specifically mentioned 2030 clean energy goals. However, leaders shied away from explicitly mentioning fossil fuel phase-out and maintaining lines on coal phase down from Indian and Indonesian G20. In 2025, G20 leaders must show that they are serious about their commitment to submit ambitious NDCs that fully embrace the GST energy package – accelerating renewables and phasing out of fossils as necessary measures for a climate safe future.”
Danny Scull, Senior Policy Advisor at E3G said:
“The G20 have now identified every puzzle piece necessary to scale climate finance – they’ve laid out the plan right in front them, from SDR re-channeling to debt and tax reforms. But this declaration stops short of committing to piece them all together by a defined date. And the reference to COP finance outcomes is little more than a head nod.”
ENDS
Available for comment
Gustavo Pinheiro (EN, PT), Senior Associate
m: + gustavo.pinheiro@e3g.org
Leo Roberts (EN), Programme Lead, Coal-to-Clean Power Transitions
m: +44 (0)7908 664334 e: leo.roberts@e3g.org
Danny Scull (EN), Senior Policy Advisor, (Evolution Roadmap, World Bank Group, International financial architecture reform)
m: +1 (301) 787 0942 | danny.scull@e3g.org
Notes to Editors
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